Deciphering the Bengal and Kerala Election Results by a Sanghi who never went to a Shakha

धर्म एव हतो हन्ति धर्मो रक्षति रक्षितः ।
तस्माद्धर्मो न हन्तव्यो मा नो धर्मो हतोऽवधीत् । । ८.१५ । ।

Mahabharatha | Manu Smriti

Dharma destroys when abandoned. Dharma, when upheld, protects.
Dharma, therefore, should not be abandoned. Let not abandoned Dharma destroy us.

English Translation

One of the most fiercely fought elections just got over. All said and done, Bengal was a prestige battle for BJP. Though they can be happy with the 77 odd seats that they won, it wasn’t really what the ultimate goal was.

BJP had to win Bengal this time for them to focus on Kerala for the next term. But that didn’t happen. Which means that they will have to start all over again in 2026.

But the question is – how difficult will it be for them to do it in 2026?

I was analyzing the recently concluded elections in Kerala and West Bengal and trying to decipher what went wrong for the BJP.

After all I am sanghi who never went to the shakha (I stole that from Rahul Roushan’s bookThe Sanghi who never went to a Shakha. If you haven’t read it, get it now).

My data was biased (at least that is what my left counterparts and the Congress friends would say).. But it was interesting and I couldn’t stop myself from sharing.

In the recently concluded elections, between Bengal and Kerala there were a total of 78 Muslim candidates who won the elections. Out of these about 37 candidates were from constituencies where the Hindu population was in majority.

I was extremely happy.

After all our country is a secular state and it is our responsibility to upload the secular fabric of the country.

It was then that another data point struck me. There were a total of 17 Hindu candidates who stood from constituencies where the Muslim population was in majority.

Not a single candidate won.

So, as per the agreement of secularism, they too should have won. Isn’t it?

Ah! then I realized. India is a Hindu majority state. So it is the responsibility of the majority to protect the rights of the minority. I am such a fool! I deduced.

That’s when another important data-point struck me..

That is the population distribution of Kerala (I don’t want to post the Bengal stats here for the worry that a few of you who are reading this will turn Sanghis after you read that).

Ironically the Hindu population has seen a decline in growth rate and so has the Christian population (a sanghi trying to defend a non-Hindu).

The Muslim population on the other had, has seen a steady increase. Almost the double of the Hindu Population.

religion wise distribution kerala

While the growth rate of Hindus declined from 7.29% in 2001 when compared to 1991 to a mere 2.23% in 2011 in comparison to 2001, the growth rate of Muslims were pretty much flat.

The story from 2011 – 2021 is going to be a lot different. With Hindus moving out of Kerala and Muslims moving into Kerala, the census (if done correctly) will provide some startling numbers. No wonder the “Kerala Model” of the CPI(M), doesn’t want to conduct the census.

Here an adjusted extrapolated number that the biased statistician in me could put together.

PS: It’s a calculated number and is not actuals.

religion in kerala

Now that’s some number to be worried about.

My hometown is a small Kerala town – Kollam. My ancestral paternal house used to be surrounded by Hindu families who had huge land.

By the time I was 20, most of these families had moved out and their lands were all bought by wealthy Muslims. Today after 45 years of my birth, I see that my house is surround by Muslim houses.

In fact the flags that I see when I walk from the nearest bus stop to my home is that of SDPI.

That reminded me of the words of a prominent Muslim leader. He was right when he said, “Today, If we wish we can decide who rules the state and we should do it”.

If that was a Hindu leader who would have said that, Hindus would have abandoned him because he wasn’t secular.

What the post-election violence in Bengal tells us

It wasn’t even 24 hours that the Trinamool Congress had won the elections before they started their murderous campaign on their opposition.

In less than 24 hours, there were 27 BJP workers (read it as Hindus) killed, 7 BJP offices burnt down and numerous instances of rioting and arson.

It was ironical that they didn’t even spare Congress and CPI(M) workers. But nobody from leadership of these parties condemned or, even responded to the SOS calls and cries of these workers.

After all, Mamata was their choice. And they couldn’t have condemned their own choice.

But was this violence unexpected?

Not really.

After all, Mamata had promised payback even before the results were announced. And TMC is no stranger to rioting and arson. Killing and murdering people who supported anything other than TMC was also not new to them.

But then, that it will start within 24 hours of election results was unexpected by even the cabals.

Would it have been unexpected for Mamata?

I wouldn’t think so. It was well planned.

It was clear that she wanted to send a message out – That if you oppose, you will be wiped out.

In fact, it is also a signal to the other parties – That the only way to stop BJP from coming to power is to strike at the roots.

And the result – Hindus have already started fleeing their homes to adjoining states.

For all who wouldn’t have read or, heard about it, let me remind you that this is exactly what happened in Kashmir in 1989.

The result – Hindus were practically wiped out of Kashmir.

What 2026 has in store for BJP

So, is 2026 going to be easier for BJP considering they have already established a footprint in Bengal?

It isn’t?

BJP is a party of the grassroots. It has a strong cadre which is what has helped its growth in the country.

It is here that it has scored against every one of their opposition.

And in Bengal, it is here that they faltered.

They met a match which had an even stronger cadre. A cadre that was willing to sweat it out and even kill if required.

And in the battle of the cadres, the stronger and the more violent won.

Mamata and her followers have understood that, if they have to win they have to destroy BJP at their roots.

In the next 5 years that will follow, their will be a pogrom to wipe out Hindus from the state. There will be every attempt to cut BJP at their roots, which is sure to weaken the party at their roots.

So, in 5 years from now BJP will practically be building their presence all over again.

And they will find themselves exactly where they are today.

In fact it is going to be all the more difficult for BJP because Narendra Damodardas Modi, whose charisma and follower base that the BJP has been riding on will age in the next 5 years.

With the way he is taxing himself out with the current problems, it needs to be seen as to how much of the current energy and enthusiasm he will be able to spare in his campaigns in 5 years from now.

BJP needs to desperately start building the next Modi, if they are to repeat 2021 at the least.

The story is not going to be any different in Kerala where the Hindu population is anyways diminishing with every passing year.

With less than 50% Hindus going out to vote and more than 60% Muslims ensuring that they vote, the results of the next election is also very much predictable.

Hindus have always been the safe-keepers of secularism in India, in spite of them not getting it in return.

While a section of Hindus have woken up to the truth, there is still a large section who thinks that secularism is their responsibility and hence BJP is a communal party. And we have a lot of them in Kerala, the state with the most literacy.

But then…

Till the time the Indian Union Muslim League, All India Majhlis-e-Musaleem, SDPI etc. are considered secular, the trend will continue.

After all, we are a secular state. We need to protect the rights of the minority.

Isn’t it?

So I am definitely wrong in wanting the BJP to come to power.

After all, BJP is communal and I am a Sanghi, albeit.. one who never went to the Shakha..

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